MartinJenkins was engaged by councils across the Wellington/Wairarapa region (via Greater Wellington) to undertake an independent financial assessment of governance reform options under the Government’s Head Start pathway. Using long-term financial forecasts, including operating and capital investment forecasts, debt profiles and revenue projections supplied by participating councils, we developed a consistent modelling framework to test the financial implications of alternative unitary authority arrangements. The analysis normalised key assumptions across councils, allocated regional council costs and revenues, incorporated transition and establishment costs, modelled potential efficiency gains, and assessed net financial benefits and financial resilience under different governance scenarios.
The assessment found all amalgamation options have the potential to generate long-term net financial benefits, with estimated savings arising from reduced duplication, economies of scale and improved capital efficiency. The modelling also demonstrated that larger unitary arrangements significantly strengthen balance sheets and increase borrowing headroom, improving councils’ ability to absorb major shocks such as natural disasters or infrastructure failures. While financial outcomes varied between options, the analysis highlighted that resilience benefits were often more significant than direct efficiency gains. The work provided councils with an evidence-based indicative assessment of the affordability, sustainability, and risk implications of different reform pathways, sufficient for supporting council decision-making during the Head Start process.
